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Interesting AU possibility
Mar. 14th, 2006 09:21 amFrom the Wikipedia entry on President Grover Cleveland.
In 1893, Cleveland sent former Congressman James Henderson Blount to Hawaii to investigate the overthrow of Queen Liliuokalani and the establishment of a republic. He supported Blount's scathing report; called for the restoration of Liliuokalani; and withdrew from the Senate the treaty of annexation of Hawaii. When the deposed Queen announced she would execute the current government in Honolulu, Cleveland dropped the issue.
If the Queen hadn't announced her intention of execution, or was persuaded not to go through with it, then we might just have 49 states in the American flag, or possibly have fifty, with one of them being Guam or Puerto Rico (I think the temptation to make the number of stars an even fifty might be overwhelming). Which leaves Hawaii a sovereign nation, and possibly a monarchy, well into the 20th century and perhaps the 21st.
Probable consequences? Not a great many, at least at first. We'd still have Hawaii as a trading partner, and many of the plantations there would be American owned. But the real question is whether we would have a naval base in the islands. As a strategic point, it's hard to see the USN not establishing a base there, either by political and military strong-arming or merely diplomacy and a Guantanamo style leasing arrangement.
If we don't have base there by 1940, then certainly by 1941 the Japanese would. Holding Hawaii would be vital to holding the Pacific, and the Japanese Empire would not simply ignore it. But holding an island chain so large and populous, on top of their other conquests, would strain the Empire even harder than it was in Mainline history. Native Hawaiians would be engaging in a guerilla war, while the USMC's island hopping campaign would be readied to confront the Japanese in Hawaii rather than even more distant islands in the Pacific.
End results: Probably not too far off Mainline history. The Japanese would fight tooth and nail, possibly losing more troops and ending the war a few weeks more quickly. The most severe consequence might be that the United States actually starts winning too early, and starts the invasion of the Home Islands prior to the successful test of the first A-Bomb, resulting in heavy casualties for the US as they conquer Japan, and probably far more resentment from the Japanese civilian population, as they are confronted with their conquerers firsthand. Long term relations between Japan and the West might be severely strained as a result.
And the Hawaiian monarchy might still fall, either executed by the Japanese, or worse, executed by the United States for colloborating with their conquerers.
Update: Okay, a little further digging seems to kill the idea of Hawaii remaining a monarchy at least. Queen Liliuokalani had weak support at best from the citizens of Hawaii, and President McKinley was a staunch imperialist who probably would have annexed the islands anyway. OTOH If Hawaii had managed to retain it's independence despite these obstacles, history still could have turned out much differently.
In 1893, Cleveland sent former Congressman James Henderson Blount to Hawaii to investigate the overthrow of Queen Liliuokalani and the establishment of a republic. He supported Blount's scathing report; called for the restoration of Liliuokalani; and withdrew from the Senate the treaty of annexation of Hawaii. When the deposed Queen announced she would execute the current government in Honolulu, Cleveland dropped the issue.
If the Queen hadn't announced her intention of execution, or was persuaded not to go through with it, then we might just have 49 states in the American flag, or possibly have fifty, with one of them being Guam or Puerto Rico (I think the temptation to make the number of stars an even fifty might be overwhelming). Which leaves Hawaii a sovereign nation, and possibly a monarchy, well into the 20th century and perhaps the 21st.
Probable consequences? Not a great many, at least at first. We'd still have Hawaii as a trading partner, and many of the plantations there would be American owned. But the real question is whether we would have a naval base in the islands. As a strategic point, it's hard to see the USN not establishing a base there, either by political and military strong-arming or merely diplomacy and a Guantanamo style leasing arrangement.
If we don't have base there by 1940, then certainly by 1941 the Japanese would. Holding Hawaii would be vital to holding the Pacific, and the Japanese Empire would not simply ignore it. But holding an island chain so large and populous, on top of their other conquests, would strain the Empire even harder than it was in Mainline history. Native Hawaiians would be engaging in a guerilla war, while the USMC's island hopping campaign would be readied to confront the Japanese in Hawaii rather than even more distant islands in the Pacific.
End results: Probably not too far off Mainline history. The Japanese would fight tooth and nail, possibly losing more troops and ending the war a few weeks more quickly. The most severe consequence might be that the United States actually starts winning too early, and starts the invasion of the Home Islands prior to the successful test of the first A-Bomb, resulting in heavy casualties for the US as they conquer Japan, and probably far more resentment from the Japanese civilian population, as they are confronted with their conquerers firsthand. Long term relations between Japan and the West might be severely strained as a result.
And the Hawaiian monarchy might still fall, either executed by the Japanese, or worse, executed by the United States for colloborating with their conquerers.
Update: Okay, a little further digging seems to kill the idea of Hawaii remaining a monarchy at least. Queen Liliuokalani had weak support at best from the citizens of Hawaii, and President McKinley was a staunch imperialist who probably would have annexed the islands anyway. OTOH If Hawaii had managed to retain it's independence despite these obstacles, history still could have turned out much differently.
