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jeriendhalIn theory this should have been, if not an easy win for Mitt Romney, at least a closer fight than it turned out to be. The economy is still in the tank, pretty much, the middle east is in the middle of a sometimes violent sea change, China's economic dominance is on the rise, American civil liberties are still at risk because of the Patriot Act and its successive laws. Mitt could have, tried to, use at least some of that against the President to win. But it didn't work.
So what can the next GOP candidate do?
1. Remember that voters have more than one skin color.
Demographics are seriously against the Republican strategy of appealing to white voters and giving the rest to the Democrats. Hispanics? Still Catholic, still valuing hard work and education. Blacks? They were pretty lukewarm to the idea of gay marriage and a large percentage still are.
Those are conservative values. They could have served as a hook to draw more of them into the GOP. White voters are going to be the minority by mid century, and nothing the Republicans can do will change that.
2. Remember that litmus tests are limiting.
Romney, once, resembled a more moderate Republican when he was governor of Massachusetts. He had to be. Kennedy country is firmly Blue, so he had to use compromise to get what he wanted, and construct plans that appealed to non-Republican voters.
Then he decided to try and become president. Which meant he had to win the nomination. Which meant he had to Appeal to the Base. And that meant appeal to the Tea Party and the rest, who were not very forgiving of people who stray from the One True Path of No New Taxes Not Ever and Socialized Medicine is the Decline and Fall of the West.
And then, once he's become the GOP nominee, he had to make another U-turn and reassure the rest of America that he could appeal to everyone, not just the Tea Party activists.
This proved a bit difficult...
3. Remember that voter have long term memories.
The economy got wrecked by out of control banks. The Republicans in Congress actively blocked significant legislation to rein those banks in. And kept on blocking Obama's other bills, one after another. And then had to gall to argue that Obama was an ineffective president.
And then argued the problem with the economy was the restrictions on the banks.
People actually remembered that.
4. Remember you can't run on two messages.
Mitt had a fighting chance through the summer, riiiight up to the point that the infamous 47% remark became extremely public on YouTube. He spent too long waffling before rejecting his remarks, and by then the damage was well an truly done. America had seen his private opinion of welfare recipients, which just happened to include the elderly, retired military, the disabled, ect., and it was that they were addicted to government handouts and deserved neither Republican attention nor sympathy.
After that everything was just trying to bail out the rowboat as the water rushed in.
There's more to this, but I'm tired and I need to get ready for work. The upshot is that the Republicans, if they want to win next time, have to moderate their message and act like moderates. The obstructionist strategy developed by Newt Gingrich of having Congress stick its fingers in its ears and screaming "NO! NO! NO!" is no longer working. Or rather, it is working and people can damned well see where it's leading us.
The Republicans cannot go on like that, or they, as others have pointed out, are going to become a much smaller, more regional party. Litmus tests and ideological purity means they're locking more voters out, not welcoming them in.
And those locked out have only one other party to turn to right now.
So what can the next GOP candidate do?
1. Remember that voters have more than one skin color.
Demographics are seriously against the Republican strategy of appealing to white voters and giving the rest to the Democrats. Hispanics? Still Catholic, still valuing hard work and education. Blacks? They were pretty lukewarm to the idea of gay marriage and a large percentage still are.
Those are conservative values. They could have served as a hook to draw more of them into the GOP. White voters are going to be the minority by mid century, and nothing the Republicans can do will change that.
2. Remember that litmus tests are limiting.
Romney, once, resembled a more moderate Republican when he was governor of Massachusetts. He had to be. Kennedy country is firmly Blue, so he had to use compromise to get what he wanted, and construct plans that appealed to non-Republican voters.
Then he decided to try and become president. Which meant he had to win the nomination. Which meant he had to Appeal to the Base. And that meant appeal to the Tea Party and the rest, who were not very forgiving of people who stray from the One True Path of No New Taxes Not Ever and Socialized Medicine is the Decline and Fall of the West.
And then, once he's become the GOP nominee, he had to make another U-turn and reassure the rest of America that he could appeal to everyone, not just the Tea Party activists.
This proved a bit difficult...
3. Remember that voter have long term memories.
The economy got wrecked by out of control banks. The Republicans in Congress actively blocked significant legislation to rein those banks in. And kept on blocking Obama's other bills, one after another. And then had to gall to argue that Obama was an ineffective president.
And then argued the problem with the economy was the restrictions on the banks.
People actually remembered that.
4. Remember you can't run on two messages.
Mitt had a fighting chance through the summer, riiiight up to the point that the infamous 47% remark became extremely public on YouTube. He spent too long waffling before rejecting his remarks, and by then the damage was well an truly done. America had seen his private opinion of welfare recipients, which just happened to include the elderly, retired military, the disabled, ect., and it was that they were addicted to government handouts and deserved neither Republican attention nor sympathy.
After that everything was just trying to bail out the rowboat as the water rushed in.
There's more to this, but I'm tired and I need to get ready for work. The upshot is that the Republicans, if they want to win next time, have to moderate their message and act like moderates. The obstructionist strategy developed by Newt Gingrich of having Congress stick its fingers in its ears and screaming "NO! NO! NO!" is no longer working. Or rather, it is working and people can damned well see where it's leading us.
The Republicans cannot go on like that, or they, as others have pointed out, are going to become a much smaller, more regional party. Litmus tests and ideological purity means they're locking more voters out, not welcoming them in.
And those locked out have only one other party to turn to right now.
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no subject
Date: 2012-11-07 11:30 am (UTC)I'm not saying Romney could've pulled a win if he'd thrown Todd Akin and Mourdock under a buss after their "legitimate rape" and "gift from god" comments, but the GOP's attempts to 'clarify' their positions (probably not wanting to lose Akin's seat in the Senate Science Committee despite him just having proven that he has no business being on it) showed every undecided woman where their priorities lay.
no subject
Date: 2012-11-07 01:21 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-11-07 03:17 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-11-07 04:25 pm (UTC)They gave up on the black vote in the 60's with the Southern Strategy, and still haven't admitted that much of the South is becoming more and more diverse. The painfully obvious attempts to restrict the voting franchise by Republican governors only drives more people to the Democratic side.
no subject
Date: 2012-11-07 03:35 pm (UTC)He still won, of course, and 2.5 million people isn't as tiny a margin as it looked like it would be for a span of time, but quite a few people still did support Romney despite your points.
no subject
Date: 2012-11-10 06:51 am (UTC)It also doesn't help them that they decided to crack down on and/or make fun of OWS, rather than paying attention to the message that they represented.